Two steps forward, one step back. It’s a common adage and, in the case of our current bull run, it’s expected. And that’s OK. After a tremendous Q1 leading up to the halving we now have a consolidation phase as we prepare for the next legs of growth. No surprises here, so rather than focus on markets this blog let’s turn more towards technology. One of my goals is that my readers understand not just what is happening, but also why it is happening, and while everyone is distracted by price action our next age, The Age of Autonomy, is taking hold. Let’s jump in.
Autonomous Airport Assistance
I travel a lot. I mean a lot. Now more than ever finds me spending 2/3 of the time on the road. Most of the time I’m educating on the topic of blockchain and crypto and, though many are skeptical, there is an openness to learning that simply wasn’t there even a few short years ago. Back then I was viewed as if I was a Martian speaking about science fiction. Well, perhaps some of the things that were fiction just those few short years ago are now becoming fact, and one of the things that I really enjoy while on the road is seeing technologies being used in new and important ways.
Which brings me to Miami. After finally clearing security (thank you TSA precheck), a sign advising to be aware of “autonomous wheelchairs” caught my eye. I thought this most interesting but didn’t think too much of it at that moment. Then, as I embarked on what seemed an infinitely long walk to my gate, sure enough, I saw a small rolling chair in front of me with a passenger who needed assistance delightfully perched on top. Said passenger was being taken to their gate… notably… without any porter or airport personnel. Without any human guide or even a sherpa. This chair was just doing its thing. It truly was an autonomous chair.
Now, if you’ve traveled any busy airport, you are aware that dodging your fellow flyers who are racing for gates, vendors, baggage, or an exit is a nontrivial task. Yet the wheelchair did just fine. My jaw dropped as I watched it slow when necessary to avoid hurried travelers, adjust routes so as not to bump into the many obstacles, ultimately – successfully and safely – navigating the airport. This device was truly autonomous, and it dutifully ferried its passenger to the right location.
It’s happening.
This is a great example of the Age of Autonomy beginning to materialize in our daily lives. And it is just the beginning. In New York and California (and I imagine many other places now) you can see food delivery bots autonomously zipping down the street. At home we have robot vacuums that can deftly navigate around household objects (ours, with its blue and white droid decal, is affectionately known as “R2-Dust2.”) Stores now allow you to shop without going through checkout, everything meticulously monitored, and all items taken then charged to your card on file. Amazon now has drones that deliver packages. Now…. autonomous wheelchairs. It’s one thing to have food or a package delivered, but the wheelchair was amazing to me because it was delivering a human.
The Age of Autonomy Arrives
This is the start of the next innovation wave, which we call the Age of Autonomy. My partner Jake has been talking about this for years. When his thesis was put forth in 2018 many didn’t see it. For those new to this concept, the idea is that we’ve exited the “Information Age” and are now in a new long-wave economic cycle. This is a 40-50-year cycle ushered in by a cluster of innovations which heralds the convergence of the internet of things (sensor data), artificial intelligence (AI), robotics and, of course, blockchain technology.
It’s not like this is out of nowhere, of course. Chat GPT gave everyone a wakeup call and now we’re starting to see implementations of AI pop up everywhere. For example, I have a Spanish oriented AI called LuzIA that helps me polish my language skills and communicate concepts that are beyond my current basic Spanish language skills. It’s like a personal tutor that I can not only talk to, but it can assist with context, regional differences, and nuances in the language that a simple translation tool cannot. This is just one example, and before long everyone will have a personal AI assistants that will help with, well, everything.
But a robot safely ferrying people from gate to gate without human control is just next level. With the charge of safeguarding a human, it must read all of the data from cameras and sensors in real time. Then using AI technology determine pathways, risks, and speed, and then manage the constant changing landscapes of humans moving in different speeds and different directions. To me, this is more impressive than a self-driving car, where at least there are some well-defined rules of the road. There’s simply nothing well defined about humans navigating an airport terminal.
So where is this going? Well, imagine the same technologies that deftly navigate the chaos of an airport terminal are deftly navigating the complex landscape of the world of business and industry. Forget self-driving cars and self-driving chairs. Before long we’re going to have self-driving businesses, and this is where blockchain comes in. Businesses with AI systems that can crunch an ungodly amount of data and then, via blockchain technology, conduct economic transactions automatically, without (or with limited) human intervention. In this world no human will be able to keep up, and this is why we’re so keen on blockchain. It will take some time for the complete build out of Web3 and public decentralized digital financial infrastructure of course, but that’s what many of the blockchain projects are all about. While bitcoin takes all the headlines, the real innovation is allowing peer-to-peer direct transactions – be it money or data – without going through a counterparty. This is why we are beating this stump so hard… because the innovation wave is also an opportunity for those that see it.
Digital Transformation
Dovetailing on this let’s look at another view, specifically around bitcoin. At MicroStrategy World the unflappable (and now almost legendary) Michael Saylor talked about digital transformation, and he had a poignant analogy. In 2023, 100% of S&P 500 gains were due to 7 companies – “The Magnificent 7” – which are Apple, Microsoft, (Google parent) Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla. The remaining 493 companies were basically flat and were being carried. Not a surprise, these seven companies are technology innovators. They are bringing us closer to an autonomous world. The rest of the companies in the S&P aren’t meaningfully moving the S&P needle, and the technology innovators are the creme that has risen to the top. Saylor’s point is that digital transformation is the future, and it is going to drive just about all growth in the future.
We all know that the Information Age brought us the digitization of… information. While I snarked when the Kindle came out, books are now digital. Napster brought the wrath of the music industry but, here we are, music is digital. Movies are digital, a lesson difficultly learned by Blockbuster. I use digital paper and pen to write notes during the day and keep them synced across all devices. The simple truth is that much to my chagrin, the age of the CD and Blu-Ray, paper and pencil is all but over. I love my CDs. I love my Blu-Rays. But honestly, physical devices really don’t make much sense anymore. This is one of the biggest impacts of the Information Age.
Now, we’re moving to the next level, and if everything is going digital… shouldn’t money? It is actually a natural evolutionary step. And, the digital transformation of money is what Bitcoin is. Saylor’s point when looking at the gains of the S&P is, “why would one bet against this?” I’m not saying there aren’t other ways to make money and, look, this stuff doesn’t happen overnight. Any change in any arena is generally difficult and as humans we don’t like change. But, the fact is it has always happened, always will, and now we are obligated to look at what’s next.
The inevitable digital transformation of money is just one more step. It’s just the beginning, because in our next Age, just as we digitalized information in the last age, we’re going to be digitizing processes. Tying it all together (and a sneak preview of future blogs), while Bitcoin is the evolution of money, bringing into the digital age, crypto in general is much more than that. It’s software that can do things. It’s production capital not just financial capital and, though you may not be able to see it yet, will be foundational over the coming decades. This is what blockchain technology will facilitate, and why this innovation stack is to important.
In Closing
There’s an old adage that it’s best to ride a horse in the direction that it’s going. It’s pretty clear that this horse is quickly becoming autonomous so, just like an autonomous trusty wheelchair can now boldly transport us to a gate, consider that our autonomous horses have now arrived. And they are moving in a very particular direction. I highly recommend that everybody get on.
That’s all for now! Until next time be well, stay safe, and I’ll keep Decrypting Crypto for you!